This article provides a pretty clear explanation of the unusual link between El Nino and the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO) that caused the tremendous snows in our area this past winter. The last time the NAO was similar to this past winter was…
So far we’ve missed the storms that have passed through the area. Several prolific rain producers formed just east of town and tracked away from us, but there are a few more cells still off to the north and west that may yet find their way to us….
For various reasons I’ve been off the Fredericksburg Weather grid for the past few days and am just now returning to it. Thank goodness for the relief from the triple digit heat of the past weekend. Even though today was uncomfortably hot a…
I did give chase to a convective line this afternoon…AFTER I verified that at least some storms survived their Appalachian crossing. Unfortunately the portion of this line – associated with a front that dropped Shannon Airport’s temperature int…
Today’s high at Shannon Airport was 103 degrees F, with a dewpoint of 77. That works out to a heat index of 120 degrees! Not only that, but the air temperature was in the triple digits from the 12:37 pm observation to the 7:17 pm observatio…
A frontal passage tomorrow will trigger some strong storms sometime during the afternoon, and based upon the above graphical depiction of the available mixed layer CAPE (instability) and a quick review of forecast wind profiles I agree with the SPC tha…
So far today’s high temperature at Shannon Airport (KEZF) is 101 degrees F, with the Stafford Regional Airport (KRMN) showing a high of 97. As Shannon is much closer to Fredericksburg both geographically and in elevation I’ll stick with the highe…
The very latest National Hurricane update states that Bonnie has officially formed, with maximum sustained winds of 40 mph and the center located about 415 miles east-southeast of Key West. The forecast track has it hitting the Louisiana coast Su…
Given the Severe TS watch issued for the region just south and west of us I decided this afternoon was a good day to chase, altho’ I wasn’t excited about parking in a target spot based on my analysis of the local conditions. That would have meant sitti…
Could it be? Maybe, and a number of the forecasts have it tracking into the Gulf of Mexico. We could have an even worse mess on our hands soon. I’ll keep an eye on this one.
